Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Why not have a new foreign policy - "All Weather Friends"

Somehow I was following up on the news going around related with India-Japan-China-ASEAN ... Then somehow I got this India's foreign policy related thought in this "IT" Brain... He he ...was surprised myself....Anyhow...just putting it down...

I believe its very important for India as a nation to have few "All Weather Friends". We have definately seen that for every nation ups & downs are there. Today India is in upwards trend....we may be downward sometime...similarily some other nation...so we need to have a group of friends who help you & you help them back...in all weathers....

1> Have atleast 1 "All Weather friend" in every regional unions of nations
The reason I am saying that, no nation should be able to get a whole regional union against India if we get a strong friend in all groupings. At the same time, it gives us extra soft power to push for some resolution against our adversary or those which can benefit India economocially, militarily, or strategically. I will put just one nation which I think will be most prefered in each category. At the end we can compile a list of most prefered friends and then India can work more closely with them.
List of Group/unions which I can think of
a> African Union consisting of 53 African states. The only African state not in the AU is Morocco.
In AU, South Africa will suit India the best. South Africa & India has literally no conflicts. There is a large group of South Africans of Indian descent. Mahatma Gandhi, spent many years in South Africa, during which time, he fought for the rights of the ethnic Indians. Nelson Mandela was inspired by Gandhi. Also They are close in various forums like IBSA.

b. ASEAN is a geo-political and economic organization of 10 countries located in Southeast Asia. Economically, culturally, militarily as well as strategically its very important for India. Also all members of ASEAN also form East Asia (EAS) also, to which India is also part of. ASEAN is one where India & China are competing for influence.
In ASEAN, Vietnam will be my Pick. As its Anti-china, miltarily capable & share some good history with India along with economical benefits. Also both are members of Mekong-Ganga Cooperation. Both India & Vietnam are already helping each other.

c. Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG) comprises the Persian Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For India, its very important. More than 50% of the oil consumed by India comes from the Persian Gulf countries[181] and Indian nationals form the largest expatriate community in the Arabian peninsula.
Here I will put Qatar as most favoured. Saudi Arabia are more pro-pakistan as compared to India. Also one of the reason for Qatar is that we already have a landmark defense pact was signed, under which India committed its military assets to protect "Qatar from external threats".

d. Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) + Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) is a regional organization whose participating countries are former Soviet Republics, formed during the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Here I will put RUSSIA, India & RUSSIA have a time tested friendship + there relationship is win-win situation in defence area.

e. Union of South American Nations is an intergovernmental union integrating two existing customs unions: Mercosur and the Andean Community of Nations, as part of a continuing process of South American integration. It is modeled on the European Union.

Here I will make Brazil as the preferred choice. Most of the foreign policy stands matches with Brazil also both countries are already discussing in IBSA forum.

f. Arab League is a regional organisation of Arab states in North and Northeast Africa, and Southwest Asia.
I will prefer Egypt here as potential All weather friend for India. India & Egypt are also founding members of NAM and both have supported each other.

g. North American (NAFTA) Not sure whom to pick...Canada / US / Mexico....Not sure....U ppl suggest....

i. Pacific Islands Forum is an inter-governmental organization that aims to enhance cooperation between the independent countries of the Pacific Ocean.
Here, I will prefer New Zealand. One of the reason not to choose Australia is that ppl to ppl contact between two nations doesn't seem to be converging. I didn't choose Fiji as its suspended now.

j. The European Union (EU) is an economic and political union of 27 member states[8] which are located primarily in Europe.
here I will prefer, France. Yes, you are right. France, Russia and Israel were the only countries that did not condemn India's decision to go nuclear in 1998.[164] In 2003, France became the largest supplier of nuclear fuel and technology to India and remains a large military and economic trade partner. India's permanent member aspirations in the UN Security Council have found very strong support from former French President Chirac and more recently by the current French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

k. Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is an international organisation with a permanent delegation to the United Nations, with 57 member states.
Iran :- It has proved already that it regard India as friend when it saved India when it was in a mess from Kashmir Issue being adopted in OIC. I hate to say that India voted against them for nuclear. I wish India build that relation ship back & informally apologise to Iran who has always been our friend. Strategically, Its also neighbour of Pakistan and it will help us.

2> Try to be "All Weather friend" with countries with lot of Ethnic Indians
Here my picks are
a> Mauritius :- Majority are from Indian Origin + its already very close friend.
b> Not Malaysia :- Wont be an all weather friend for sure...they somehow dont like India, I feel. But we need to be friend, not all weather though. Malaysia most of the times take anti India posture. So wont pick it
c> Singapore :- Strategically + Economically. Lot of PIOs are there
d> Caribbean (Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago) :- Miltarily + strategically not very important. But has huge Indian Origin presence.
e> Fiji :- Lot of PIOs are there. Miltarily + strategically not very important. But India needs to be friend to protect Indian Origin people.

3> Strategic allies + Misc
My Picks here are:-
Israel :- Lot of military training & execution can be learnt from them. Nice to be on ur side rather than against you.
Tajikstan :- India already have troops stationed there + Energy security in Central Asia.
JAPAN :- It has money + technology, India has market. Both are threatened by China. Win-win.

4> All Neighbours except Pakistan + China India needs to be close to its neighbour and somehow break the China's "String of Pearls" in Indian ocean

List of All weather Friends I propose :-
1> South Africa
2> Vietnam <>
3> Qatar (CCASG, Gulf)
4> RUSSIA (CIS, EAEC)
5> Brazil (South America)
6> Egypt (Arab League, African Union)
7> New Zealand (Pacific Islands)
8> France (EU)
9> Mauritius (Indian Oceans, PIOs)
10> Singapore (EAS, ASEAN, PIOs)
11> Israel (Miltarily)
12> Tajikstan (Energy, Military)
13> Iran (Energy, OIC, Militarily)
14> JAPAN (Strategically, technology)
15> SAARC countries except Pakistan



Optionals
Carribean (Optional, PIOs)
Fiji (Optional, PIOs)

What do you guys think of new Policy "Make All weather friends" ....Once we have good number of All weather freinds Enemies will have to think before taking some mischeievios steps...I know India is self sufficient, but in this world its very important to link and form strategic alliance...

But India should keep this policy secret & not reveal it...

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Battles I see around me !!!



Well, I see more of battles going around our world in different sphere from cultural to technological to ideological to political ....

So just though to list them out and may be add some opinions on them...


1. Battle of Sex:-




















  • Male vs Female :- Perhaps the oldest one and the one which will last till the either of the last men or female survives in the planet. Latest one was in the Indian parliament. The battle of Supremacy.

  • Heterosexuality vs Homosexuality ? Bisexuality :-Well the battle between homo's & hetero's are own. Its more kind of civil war for the acceptance of homo's as part of our society. Now or later we have to accept them. Well what about Bi-Sexual ?? Seems like its more like a third front of our politics, can mix with any side without any problem. The battle of Acceptance & Inclusion.

  • Man + Woman & Eunuchs "The Third Gender" :- Well different world or cultures were not sure where to place them in the order of the society or within clan which they wanted to establish. Anyways leave past... A court once said eunuchs are technically males and which blocked one of the eunuch from becoming Mayor as it was booked for a women as part of reservation in the Indian System. Though this battle is silent, but lets ask ourselves - Do we have to wait for someone to take up arms or demand for the right of equality for the opportunities or let us forward our hands for their acceptance in the society as equals. I never say give reservations or anything. I just want equal opportunity based on Merits. Mostly I have seen them begging in trains or earning by dancing or earnings when new baby's are born. But I believe this angle is largely untouched and taken least seriously. The only good thing is that they have started to take things on their own hand by forming political party, better than waiting for us - "so called rationalists".



2. Battleground of Telecom :-






















  • Apple vs Google vs Microsoft (OSs) :- This is one heck of interesting battle to watch. With the advent of i-Phone seems like Google's Android as well as Microsoft's Windows 7 Phone series are all set for a war to be win the smart phones market. They have started wooing the carriers as well as manufacturers. Google is more after advertising revenue and revenue generating revenues, Apple with i-Phone already has the bigger advantage of first to the market with huge bank of application, lastly Windows 7 Phone last entrant with the least chance to become King. Best part, only the consumers are to gain with the battle in this field. This is the battleground of OS-Framework war within the Telecom.



  • Nokia vs HTC vs Motorola vs Samsung vs RIM vs Apple (OEMs):- Nokia is no doubt the market leader in the smart phone segment. But lead seems to be in serious danger from the new entrant in the segments, like Apple and Google through its proxies (Motorola, HTC, Samsung). Motorola stopped all of its other platform and gave a complete push for one only, i.e., Android. Motorola's Droid has made a good name, interesting thing will be to see if it can turn around the company which brought Razr and how it performs after the spinoff. It has one of the highest paid ceo- Sanjay Jha. RIM is also increasing its market share at the expense of Nokia. Interesting part will be to see which of the OEM's goes for the Windows Phone 7 series and whether it will have the might to take on the established players and being the late entrant in the market. This is the battleground of OEMs within the Telecom.

  • Verizon vs AT&T (Carriers :US):- There is already a commercial war in televisions between them. AT&T had i-Phone but with a bad network coverage in US, Verizon had good n/w coverage but no i-Phone killer. With the arrival of Android Phone's Droid + Devour, Verizon seems to be armed to take on AT&T. Now doubt, Verizon will have an advantage now with its vast 3G coverage area. But in reality, the battle will be win by the carrier which delivers the first effective 4G service in US. This is the battleground of US Carriers . Keep Watching.

  • Airtel vs Vodafane vs Reliance vs Idea (Carriers :India):- Till now, it has been now only the price war and consolidation business with acquiring of spectrum and licenses etc. But the winner will be the one with improved QoS, coverage/reliability of n/w, security and performance. Price will be always a factor, with conscious Indian consumers, its always a tough job with the carriers with huge amount of pressure in profit margins. All carriers now know its a just matter of time when the revenue share will move more towards Value-added-services, basically, more revenues from data than voice revenues.This is the battleground of Indian Carrier's price war ;). Lets watch this local battle in our own country. ;)


Damn I am feeling sleepy now....Its 2 am... will continue tomorrow.... with the rest of the Battleground....

Till now only two I have covered: - Battle of Sex & Battleground of Telecom